I’ve been doing some writing about other things lately, namely my interest in the historic changes that are about to sweep through the US. It’s becoming sort of a hobby of mine, watching and writing about my country as it shifts from one phase to the next. Because the phases of change stretch about 20 years each, it’s difficult for one person to notice the pattern. But going as far back as the ancient Romans scholars noticed that there were recurring themes in history that seemed to recur on an 80 year cycle.
I’ve been interested in the writing of Bill Strauss and Neil Howe for some time now, as they’ve written a few books on the topic. They rediscovered the old idea of these cycles and put their own spin on the phases and causes. I guess a short explanation of the framework is in order, as it ties into some of the things I’ve been writing about the transgender business.
According to the authors the 80 year cycle, which they label a “saeculum” after the old Roman term for the length of a long human life, can be divided into 4 phases, or “turnings”. In the 1st turning a culture experiences a high. Institutions are strong, public trust in authority is at a peak, and society is very productive in a material sense. At the same time, spirituality and individuality is at a low point. An example of this sort of period would be the post-war years of 1946 through the early 1960’s.
The 2nd turning arrives after a new generation has been born into the high and begins to reach adulthood. After apparant tranquility of the high, people begin to question the assumptions that society makes. Individualism is on the rise and new philosophies emerge to challenge the status quo. The placid high changes into a tumultuous “awakening”. This is the 1960’s and 70’s.
As the awakening plays out, it gives way to a time of respite from all the questioning. The rapid social changes of the awakening settle into a relatively stable milieu, for the time being, as the country catches its breath. The larger questions have been hashed out and an exhausted society relaxes, with individuality becoming more important. This is the beginning of a great unravelling.
Trust in authority begins to waver as a new generation assumes power a few years into the unravelling. The still-unsettled arguments of the awakening period rear their heads and the government begins to gridlock. Things that were easy to accomplish in the time of a high become impossible as vested interests, committee think, and red tape snarl everyone in a paralyzing web. People have a sense that everything is spinning out of control and we are powerless to do anything about it. This was the 80’s and 90’s through very recently.
Culture wars erupt as this sense of helplessness leave the people only their individual voices as a means of addressing it. We rail against an intractible unknown, an invisible something that we all feel is keeping us down. Individuality reaches a peak, trust in institutions and authority declines to a low. When both these currents reach their maximum, the unravelling gives way to the next turning.
The 4th turning begins with a great sense of dread. People instinctively sense is something is not quite right. The old social order of the high can no longer address the problems of the current day, and there is nothing on the horizon to replace it. The gridlock and social paralysis of the unravelling continue and eventually result in the collapse of the old order entirely. The country descends into crises.
Strauss and Howe wrote that 4th turnings are a time when the old is swept away. It is a time of “maximum effort”; wars are fought with desperation and finality. Then the nation passes through a “great gate of history”, reborn into the new high- or descending toward its eventual demise. There is no guarantee that a country will come through the crises well.
And that is where we find ourselves now. The first rumblings have already passed, signaling the beginning of the crises. We anxiously brace for the shockwaves to follow,. The mood has darkened everywhere and although people don’t consciously understand why, we have a collective sense of impending dread.
It will be a number of years before this passes and it does not do so without tribulation. In each of the 3 previous saecula that comprise the history of the US, the crises phase has always involved large scale wars. First the Revolution, then the Civil War, and finally World War II. That’s not to say it will always be the case, as there have been examples of crises that just play themselves out over time, but it is more the rule than the exception. So what does all this have to do with TG?
Transgender is an artifact of the past. It is a little bit of awakening-era navel gazing gone awry. Ideas from an awakening crystalize towards its end, and that is where the flotsam of transgender was born. As the awakening became the unraveling individuality blossomed further, and there is an “anything goes” aspect to that phase that allowed it to live on, seemingly against all reason.
In a crises all foolishness is cast aside. People who formerly tolerated nonsense have no patience for it when their own lives and livelihoods seem threatened. Transgender has been dying a lingering death for some time, and yet the final end has yet to come. The deathknell has sounded, however, with the repudiation of gay marriage across the country. The majority has better things to worry about, and the formerly pompous and condescending elite gay lobby is finding doors slammed in its face. It is unfortunate that they pursued such a flawed political strategy during their window of opportunity, as now it will be quite some time before people will be willing to revisit the question again. Probably decades. And as the gay lobby goes, so goes the fortunes of the transgender. As others have pointed out they are joined at the hip. Simply put, transgender is gay.
The internet is an avatar for social phenomena throughout the country. If something is going on, the leading edge buzz is out here where we are talking to each other. All across the net crossdresser vanity sites, transgender “support” pages, and the bizarre social theoreticians that accompany these things are falling silent. Everyone involved with that silly business knows the party is over.
And it’s about time.
When I got off in Schroon Lake, I felt I was looking at a postcard. The majestic Adirondack Mountains soared around me. A road next to a white church ran down to a beautiful deep blue lake. From my bus companion, I knew that Schroon Lake was where the movie “Marjorie Morningstar” had been filmed. The lake was dotted with white sails and the sandy beach covered with people in brightly colored swimsuits.
